Beryl remains a CAT5 hurricane but is beginning to show signs of slow weakening. Wind shear is increasing and starting to disrupt the outflow in the western semicircle. Recon also confirms a more ragged eye with central pressure rising. I fully expect that Beryl will be downgraded to CAT4 later today....but still very dangerous.
Beryl will pass near Jamaica Wednesday evening and to the Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning. Further weakening is expected due to land interaction and wind shear.
When it moves into the southwestern Gulf Saturday morning, it will likely be down to tropical storm force.
There is expected to be a weakness in the ridge over the Southern Plains this weekend which should allow Beryl to move toward the Brownsville area Sunday. The water in the Gulf is obviously very warm but upper level conditions are marginal for intensification. However, it is quite possible Beryl could reach CAT1 hurricane intensity as it nears the Rio Grande Valley.
As I have noted over the past few days, Wednesday will be a key day to fine tune the forecast.