The low in the Gulf is now located well southeast of Brownsville and is on the verge of being upgraded to Tropical Storm Francine later today. Motion is to the north-northwest about 5-7 mph with a gradual turn to the north by tonight.
An approaching upper level trough, in the middle and upper levels, will very likely turn the system to the northeast beginning tomorrow with landfall expected Wednesday night over eastern Cameron Parish into Vermilion Parish. Environmental conditions favor development into a hurricane with CAT1 intensity most likely. Please note, that after landfall, the system will move rapidly to the northeast with no stalling.
If this track verifies, the Triangle will not see much in the way of impacts. Gusty north to northwest winds of 30-40 mph will be likely with only moderate rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range. Even less wind and rain for the Lakes Area and the Houston area.
Tides along the coast could reach 2-4 feet above normal briefly Wednesday afternoon before rapidly diminishing Wednesday night as offshore winds develop.
Obviously for our neighbors in Cameron and Vermilion Parish, preparations for hurricane conditions should be taken.