BUCK: We’re seeing something line up here where you have only really two heavyweights at the state level representing the different party narratives here, Republican and Democrat, and this could lead to a very different showdown, if not in the presidential election coming up, certainly, in the meantime, about whether Democrats or Republicans did a better job on the pandemic specifically.
We’re talking about Gavin Newsom of California — who you pointed out yesterday could be running — and of course Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. People realized that state government really matters. Those two individuals, they’re from a different generation, as we’ve discussed. Newsom will be… Ron DeSantis is actually almost 20 years or 15 years younger than Newsom, something like that. Newsom is gonna be, what, he’s in his late fifties, I think, right now? Something like that.
CLAY: Oh, is he? I didn’t know he was that old.
BUCK: Yeah, he’s older. Spends a lot of time trying to look good for the cameras.
CLAY: (laughing)
BUCK: DeSantis is, like, 42. He’s your age.
CLAY: DeSantis is my exact age. So DeSantis graduated from high school in ’97, went to college in ’01; so he just, I think, turned 43 years old.
BUCK: But there’s no one else. We think back to who was being talked about even in the last presidential election cycle from the Democrat side, there’s really nobody else who has the political base that Newsom would bring to the table for the Democrats, who’s a national level name — who has doubled and tripled down on covid, lockdowns, masks, all that stuff — and if he goes up against DeSantis, it would be a clash of the opposing political titans from the state level.
CLAY: And the reason why all this is starting to happen, yesterday I said — and we had a discussion — that at some point a viable Democrat candidate has to step out and be the first person to say, “I’m gonna take on Joe Biden. I’m going to primary him.” One way this thing plays out is Biden decides, he pulls a LBJ, says, “I will not run,” and then you have a wide-open primary like happened with LBJ in I guess ’68, right?
LBJ just says, “I can’t do it. I’m not running. Even though I would be eligible for reelection, I’m out,” and this was what I saw yesterday, Buck. Gavin Newsom has placed… This is according to AdImpact Politics, which does a good job covering where political ads are being bought and whatnot. California Governor Gavin Newsom just placed, they said, a statewide cable buy in Florida with ads beginning to air on July 4th.
Now, you might be sitting back if you’re listening to us saying, “Wait a minute. Why would the governor of California be buying any ads in the state of Florida?” Well, one thing would be to dig and get after Donald Trump, who watches a lot of Florida television from Mar-a-Lago. Another thing would be, to your point, Buck, that we would basically have American covid politics writ large where Newsom, who is the biggest surviving governor, ’cause, remember:
Former left-wing hero Andrew Cuomo has been pulled from office or has voluntarily resigned from office in a scandal and now we got Kathy Hochul. But the other side of this equation Ron DeSantis who was the most successful at handling covid of any state — and, by the way, thanks to 96.3/102.5. I’m at Panama City down in Florida. I broadcast from here a decent amount because we have a home just up the road here on the Gulf Coast of Florida that I spend a decent time on. So I spent back in May of 2020, Buck, I brought my family down to Florida for the entire month and worked from here.
And this would be an epic DeSantis versus potential Newsom battle. And tying this in with January 6th, which is going on right now, Democrats think in this third impeachment trial of Donald Trump, “Oh, we are destroying Republicans’ chances in 2024.” That’s what they’re trying to do. They are trying desperately to destroy Republican chances in 2024.
What if, in attacking Trump, they’re elevating other challengers who may be as strong as Trump as well in the Republican Party in you always have to be careful. Because, Buck, right now we got the primaries, $35 million Democrats have spent to try to pick their primary opponent. In Illinois, in other states, they’re trying to pick primary opponents. Gotta be careful when you’re trying to meddle in internal politics of the other side, ’cause sometimes you end up picking somebody who kicks your ass in an election, right? You gotta be careful.
BUCK: And speaking of some of those elections that they’re already putting a lot of money into to try to shape how it will all go, I’m hearing people say, “You want to talk some outlier” Washington State right now, Democrats not feeling good about it.
CLAY: Senate campaign.
BUCK: Colorado State right now, Democrats not feeling good about some of the races that are gonna be determined there. I’m even hearing people say it’s not crazy to think theOregon governor’s race could get interesting —
CLAY: New York Times led with that this morning about how nervous they are about what might happen in Oregon, where I don’t believe a Democrat has won statewide in the governor’s race since, like, ’88.
BUCK: A Republican has won statewide.
CLAY: Yeah. Sorry. Yes.
BUCK: Yeah. And even some people are saying Illinois could get kind of interesting too. So, now, look, we’re talking long shots here. This is not like put your money on it and sleep well at night. These are pretty long shots right now, but I do think, for example, the New York Times with Oregon, they’re trying to raise the alarm because I think there’s a somnambulance on the Democrat side.
CLAY: Whoa! Look at you. Somnambulance! Wow.
BUCK: Mmmn. Sometimes you gotta throw it in there.
CLAY: Yes.
BUCK: And I think that people on the left are just assuming, “Yeah, we’re gonna lose, but it’s gonna be an off year. This could be way beyond just an off-year election cycle.” Clay, there could be — and when I say “could,” very likely will be — more Republican governors of the 50 states at one time than we have seen in decades. I think it will be close to the all-time record.
We could be at something like 30, 31, 32 Republican governors in the states, and then you add into this the shift in school board elections, which I know people think, “Oh, you know, school board election, dogcatcher…” No. School board election is actually really important, and some of the other state legislative races, the Red Wave, they think — I believe, Clay — it’s gonna be, “Yeah, you know, we had an off year, whatever. It happens to the party in power.” Whoa. This could be way beyond that.
CLAY: To your point on the number of governors that could be in play, we talked about this last week. The Republicans, if they win 35 House seats — which is a very reasonable target — would have the largest number of Republicans in the House of Representatives since 1928. Let me repeat that ’cause it’s a record-scratch moment, I think, for a lot of people. If Republicans win 35 seats and I think that’s a reasonable target, then Republicans would have the largest number of House seats that they would have since before the Great Depression, going all the way back to 1928, almost a 100-year high in the number of Republicans that couldn’t in the how else.
To your point, Buck, almost a 100-year high in terms of the number of Republicans that would be serving as governor. And some of these Senate seats, some of these Senate seats like Washington and Colorado that aren’t really even on the radar, in these wave elections, you end up having some favorites who lose that nobody even thought it was possible they might lose. So I just want to start to put this on your radar screen. We talked with both Lee Zeldin and Andrew Giuliani about New York, but you got alarm bells going off in Oregon.
Buck, one of the stats from the New York Times this morning, did you know that in the space of the past three years, murders in Portland have tripled. Let me repeat that ’cause again it’s a stat that I think a lot of people hear and they’re in disbelief. Portland, in the last three years, has nearly tripled the number of murders that are happening in that city. And we have discussed how Seattle and Portland and, let’s say, San Francisco… If you just go visit those cities, they are three of the most beautiful jewel cities that exist anywhere in the world.
And Democrat policies have made them unsafe, they have made them filthy, they have ridden them with homelessness and murder and violent crime and businesses are suffering. And in wave elections… You already saw it happen with the San Francisco school board. You already saw it help with Chesa Boudin on the recall with the DA. In wave elections, even in monster blue state and blue city vanguards, we can see a Red Wave even hitting there. And I think that’s where we’re headed, and I think that’s where we’re headed in a hurry.