Beryl is passing well south of Puerto Rico this morning with highest winds of 165 mph....a solid CAT5 hurricane. Motion is to the WNW at 22 mph.
Beryl will likely pass over or near Jamaica Wednesday afternoon and then reach the Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning. A track over the Yucatan can be expected most of Friday into Saturday with the center emerging into the Bay of Campeche Saturday morning.
Gradual weakening should begin tomorrow as Beryl interacts with the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. Also increasing wind shear should take a toil. Much greater weakening will occur as it crosses the Yucatan and Beryl will likely be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Gulf.
We still have the same setup with a weakness in the ridge over the Southern Plains by this weekend. How much of a weakness and how strong Beryl will be are key elements on where it goes once it is in the Gulf. In general a weaker storm will trend to track more westward while a stronger storm has the potential to turn more toward the northwest.
We still have many days to monitor with any threat to the Gulf coast still about 6 days away.