According to the New York Times, deaths from diseases like tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV have been at historic lows.

But public health officials say COVID-19 could result in 20-year highs for these diseases. Part of the reason is that the lockdowns have caused people in areas of the world that are most stricken by these diseases to eschew traveling to clinics for testing and treatment, which is likely to cause these other diseases to spread like wildfire.

The Times reports:

“about 80 percent of tuberculosis, H.I.V. and malaria programs worldwide have reported disruptions in services, and one in four people living with H.I.V. have reported problems with gaining access to medications, according to U.N. AIDS. Interruptions or delays in treatment may lead to drug resistance, already a formidable problem in many countries."

So the lockdown measures instituted to save lives could ultimately end up costing even more lives from preventable and/or treatable diseases.

The Times article continues:

“In India, home to about 27 percent of the world’s TB cases, diagnoses have dropped by nearly 75 percent since the pandemic began. In Russia, H.I.V. clinics have been repurposed for coronavirus testing. Malaria season has begun in West Africa, which has 90 percent of malaria deaths in the world, but the normal strategies for prevention — distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets and spraying with pesticides — have been curtailed because of lockdowns. According to one estimate, a three-month lockdown across different parts of the world and a gradual return to normal over 10 months could result in an additional 6.3 million cases of tuberculosisand 1.4 million deaths from it. A six-month disruption of antiretroviral therapy may lead to more than 500,000 additional deaths from illnesses related to H.I.V....Another model predicted that in the worst-case scenario, deaths from malaria could double to 770,000 per year... Several public health experts, some close to tears, warned that if the current trends continue, the coronavirus is likely to set back years, perhaps decades, of painstaking progress against TB, H.I.V. and malaria.”

Michael Berry

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