Good news this morning....Beryl has not intensified and in fact is quite disorganized this morning. Highest winds are at most 50-60 mph with the low level center displaced well to the south of the deeper convection. Motion is to the west-northwest about 12 mph.
Beryl is fighting south to southwest shear and lots of dry air being pulled into the circulation from the southwest. As long as this pattern continues, no development will occur today. However, Beryl should move into a more favorable environment Sunday into early Monday giving it an opportunity to intensify.
With a weak Beryl, the track at landfall is getting more clear with Beryl moving onshore along the mid-Texas coast near Port Lavaca early Monday afternoon perhaps as a CAT1 hurricane. It should be noted, that there is the possibly that Beryl will continue to be hindered by dry air intrusions from the southwest which will greatly limit development.....will continue to monitor.
With the potential for a weaker Beryl, the forecast now suggests rainfall totals in our area of at most 5-10 inches in a 24 hour period and winds of 30-40 mph. This will occur Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Tides should run up to 3-5 feet above normal along the Bolivar Peninsula into Galveston.