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For the first time in modern history, the United States is projected to experience more deaths than births by 2030, according to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) Demographic Outlook released Tuesday (January 5). This demographic shift is expected to reshape the U.S. economy and social fabric, marking a significant milestone where net immigration will become the primary source of population growth.
The CBO attributes this change to declining fertility rates and an aging population. The total fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.53 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed for a stable population. Meanwhile, the aging Baby Boomer generation is contributing to higher mortality rates. Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink by 2030.
The CBO's updated projections have accelerated the timeline for this demographic shift by nearly a decade, compared to previous forecasts. The report highlights the economic implications, noting that a shrinking workforce will challenge the funding of social safety nets like Social Security and Medicare. The old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of workers per retiree, is expected to fall to two-to-one by the mid-2050s.
While the U.S. population is expected to continue growing slightly due to immigration, it will eventually level off and begin to decline by 2056. The average population growth rate will slow significantly, with the population expected to increase from 349 million in 2026 to 364 million in 2056 before declining.
Efforts to counteract population decline include policies to support family growth, such as tax-advantaged savings accounts for children and improved access to fertility care. However, the CBO notes that immigration will remain a critical factor in sustaining population growth.